A little speculation, if you will.
Bellvue #1 is now at 17,300ft+, which means that they are at approximately 1600 feet into the Temblor main target sand. Westminster already announced that "encouraging results" were seen in uphole zones, which I take to mean the Monterey. Personally, I could not see the group extending this well deeper, if there was a risk of fouling potential uphole pay.
It seems to me that they cannot possibly have found any sign of water, since they are drilling ahead.
This can only mean that they are still exposing more oil column, which in turn indicates that there is up to 1600 feet of oil pay already exposed in the wellbore.
According to the initial volumetric estimates, if we assume half the porosity they were expecting (to play it very conservatively), this equates to potentially 600 million barrels recoverable already found, assuming the structure is one big anticline.
This puts KOB's share value in the $20 range, based on July's oil prices.
I can't see any fault in this reasoning, but if anyone else can, I'd like to hear about it. I guess we will know in the next 2 weeks.
I think that a lot of the activity we are seeing is generated by people "in the know" - service hands, rig workers, etc...
That's usually the case. |
