Hi Dennis, I should have mentioned that it's the graph that shows the "Bull/Bear Ratio VS the SI Tech Index" that looks bullish to me (it's the third graph from the top, I believe). It looks like every time the Bull/Bear ratio has gone way low the tech index has also reached a low as well. Sort of a Long Face Index. The more unhappy the survey indicates the voters are, the more likely we're near a bottom.
Sorry you reached that point where fresh cash was required to support your portfolio's debt. I'm not using debt myself (maybe I should say "yet") but have just about exhausted my cash reserves. VLSI has gone beyond my ability to buy any extra shares - even when it gave us a nice further discount as yesterday offered. I just don't have any more to lend to it. In Newport, if you go to negative Cash Reserve, it shows up on the bar graph below the "zero" line on the graph. Several of my stocks are showing such positions right now. I've "borrowed" all the money I can from my few remaining stock that haven't suffered traumas like VLSI, etc have.
I don't follow AAPL in particular, but isn't it a "shining star" relative to about a year or so ago? Did it allow you to perform some AIM sells and help rebuild your cash position? Linda Kaplan was up to her ears in AAPL a couple of years ago, but I've lost track of where she is right now in it.
I actually had a couple of green arrows on my screen yesterday! As surprising as that may be, it was What was green that was more of a surprise. Mexico Fund (MXF) had an uptick and so did Hong Kong Fund (WEHKX). Then, overnight, the Hong Kong market rallied about 7%, so maybe I'll start to see my fund recover a bit there. WEHKX fell about 60% from previous highs and still hasn't done much but bounce around near its current low price. MXF also fell about the same. It made a try at $10+ for a while, but fell back to single digits recently. With so many of my holdings falling so far and in unison, I've had my hands full trying to keep up with what I've been buying.
There is one stock that seems to be on the recovery road early. My Jabil Circuits (JBL) is up nicely from its recent lows and held its position quite well this week. My hope is that it will continue to lead my portfolio out of the abyss.
My Ultra Fund (TWCUX) that I bought earlier in the week and was pleased to get $28.07 a share for, hit $26.85 at yesterday's close! Well, at least there I still have cash in reserve! Most of my domestic mutual funds are holding around the 20% cash mark. The exception is my small cap Vista fund (TWCVX) which is down to 11% cash. I've held that fund for a long time waiting for a small cap rally. I can't blame the fund managers much for lack of performance because my own small cap holdings have been floating in the toilet for a long time also. Both funds follow Jim Stowers' basic momentum philosophy of investing.
I also have a small holding in Fundamental Investors (ANCFX). This fund has a pretty good Bear market rating, but even it has fallen enough to trigger some AIM buying.
Interesting that the commodity end of your world is in a glut of inventory. I've had people ask in the past about use of AIM with commodities, but don't have a clue as to how it might work. My guess is that if it was used with the raw commodity and not futures that it might work okay. Have you thought about this at all?
BTW, what's your favorite annual cyclical that has a fall High point? I've contemplated the toy companies in the past, but haven't bought any of their stocks as of yet. They have a high in the fall usually.
Best regards, Tom |
