Hi Autumn, nice for you to drop by in this Zitel thread ...
My approach in Zitel is different than Mondoman's ... 1st, I cannot commit a substantial amount of time and money on Zitel ... I'm negative on the prospects of the company because I'm in the business and I've pretty much gauged the value of their technology ...
However, I intend to profit going up and down with Zitel, so I try to maintain a short and long account ... also tried buying puts and calls but the premium are just to expensive and the returns are very unpredictable ... Zitel is a bubble, in much the same way that IOMG, PRST, DNA, ANCR were bubbles ... and bubbles burst ... once the bubble bursts, traders like you will profit more because their will be more trading swings from both sides ... longs with hefty profits unloading, stop losses being triggered, shorts profit-taking ...
When I first started putting out my arguments about Zitel, I was profit in the short term, and also diffuse the bubble a little, let some air out, so it could rise some more ... unfortunately, the last few days, if you'll check the chart, reminds me of the torrid IOMG run right after it split ... then the bubble burst, creating some huge overhead supply, taming the stock once and for all ...
Question is, do I want the bubble to burst now ... answer is NO ...
Question is, do I feel the top is near ... answer is YES ... just read the number of posts over the weekend ...sooner or later, Zitelites will want their own forum ... then their will be the Son of Zitel ...
Fundamentally, Zitel is a risk v.s. reward scenario ... if you go long substantially, how can you sleep with it at this insane levels ... if you go short substantially, I would suggest you print the charts of the great bubbles stories and see how they looked like right their near the top ... what are the risks with Zitel for the longs? Worst would probably be that it is vaporware ... that it has some glitches which will make it an acceptable solution ... but I don't think their technology is this trash, I don't think that it is perfect either ... it will have its limits that will make all these billion dollar revenues more difficult to attain.
One thing that hasn't been discussed in this forum is the risk of execution ... even the best companies with the best technologies face this risk ... how will revenue be recognized ??? Since they will not be selling shrink-wrapped software, I would assume that the bottleneck, as far as their money-making opportunities are concerened, will be in the actual data gathering, customization, conversion rule analysis, conversion tracking, signoffs ... the last one SIGNING OFF is a very important phase because I would assume most companies will demand sign-off procedures which will involved having a portion of the converted code compiled and run against test environments first ... this 'waiting time' will severely impact the infrastructure Zitel/Matridigm is building ... the speed of conversion is actually not as important as the speed of execution/implementation from the time of building the inventory of source code to the time of final signoff, where I think the cheques will be signed.
So have fun trading this ... don't commit more than you can handle, and if possible day trade so you don't become a victim of vicious gaps up and gaps down ... my personal level of tolerance at this level would be about 500 shares either way ... but once the bubble bursts, it will probably suffer a 30% to 50% correction ... |
