I think Kory has the correct point about the buy and hold strategy. It is without a doubt the best after tax strategy for a taxable investor. The only people that don't want you to employ it are those who will lose the income from the huge reduction in trading. Each time you close a position you will have paid two commissions and, more importantly, incurred a tax. You can talk all you want about huge profits over a few months but in reality no one can consistently predict short-term events. Further, the tax and commission penalties of frequent trading will far outweigh the benefits in the long run. It is far better to do your research and invest long-term in companies you are comfortable holding for many, many years regardless of market opinion which is just a voting machine in the short run.
Also, shorting stocks is a losing proposition in the long run. You have roughly 3% in commissions and 10% growth on average going against you. Those are pretty hard odds to overcome. Sure it can be done in short run scenarios but it will eventually catch up with you. It is a better pay off to just avoid stocks that you are not comfortable with as an investment.
As for the number of companies that fail over thirty years, it is far easier to name companies that have not failed over the past thirty years. You have demonstrated this rather well. You are having to ask others for examples and only returning with numbers in the teens. Sure many companies do fail but many more prosper (independently or not). Michael Burke may point out that 50% of the stocks in Valueline in the 1970s are not there today but that does not mean they all failed. Some failed, some changed names, and some were acquired. I have listed below companies, off the top of my head, that have been in business for at least thirty years. Some would have been poor investments many would have been great investments. Ones due diligence would have to be the separator. It is not at all an easy task but I believe it is far easier than trying to figure out what a particular stock (or the market for that matter) will do over the short-run.
Companies in business for more than thirty years.
1. Coca Cola
2. IBM
3. DuPont
4. Dow Chemical
5. PepsiCo
6. Hewlett Packard
7. Motorola
8. Philip Morris
9. Gillette
10. McDonald's
11. Schlumberger
12. Disney
13. Pfizer
14. Procter & Gamble
15. Anheuser Busch
16. International Flavors & Fragrances
17. Johnson & Johnson
18. 3M
19. Citigroup
20. Pharmica-Upjohn
21. Baxter International
22. American Express
23. Halliburton
24. Lubrizol
25. Texas Instruments
26. Kmart
27. Digital Equipment
28. Sears
29. JC Penney
30. Eastman Kodak
31. Eli Lilly
32. Avon
33. Xerox
34. Black & Decker
35. ALCOA
36. AT&T
37. Boeing
38. Caterpillar
39. Chevron
40. Exxon
41. General Electric
42. General Motors
43. Ford
44. Chysler
45. JP Morgan
46. Texaco
47. Union Carbide
and many, many more.
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