Allright Frank, you asked for it and here it is:
First off if Viagra is only 8% of PFE's sales it is certainly 50% of it's inflated PE of, where are we now, 40?
2nd, next year healthcare costs are going to get a big jump up.Don't look at cutting costs by not sending patients to specialists like in the past 10 years.Americans have spoken, they want the best they want to be able to see specialists.So the big squeeze will be on drugs.
3rd.Trovan IV has already been placed in the " endangered list ",gg, by my medical center: i.e. a drug that can only be ordered by an Infectious Disease specialist because of it's cost.And we all know, or at least the docs know that Inf. Dis specialists don't like to use expensive antibiotics and use those with the narrowest spectrum when possible, ( don't use a missile bomb to kill a sparrow ).
-4th, resistance to Trovan is already here.First reports of Staph Aureus resistance are out.
-5th Lipitor is a good drug but it is made by Warner Lambert. I don't know what the profit sharing agreement is but I don't think it all goes to PFE.
-6th, If something cheaper than Lipitor can be used, and there are many of those, the HMOs will grab it.
I think that of those drugs on the horizonthese days, from non-steroidals on down, we already have N U M E R O U S D R U G S available that can do the job. A new drug, these days,
MUST be EXCEPTIONALLY better, as well as relatively cheap, to cut the HMO/managed care mustard, and I don't see any in the horizon. I do see a lot of hype, that is all. What we really need is not available yet in the horizon. For example, an antibiotic that will kill Methicillin resistant staphyloccocus Aureus; Vancomycin resistant staph Aureus; Vancomycin resistant Enterococcus and so on and so forth.
Also consider the political arena of a rapidly disappearing in the horizon of a Democratic Prez and Party with Newt and the boys taking over the reins of unbriddled Medicare spending and you will see that
$$$$$$ are not going to be entering the healthcare market in the forseeable future as rapidly as they did in the last 15 years.
I say you are better off investing in technology, financials for example,
TA |
