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Technology Stocks : Zitel-ZITL What's Happening
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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2276)12/30/1996 1:08:00 AM
From: Bill Fischofer   of 18263
 
Y2K Perspective

I think you've hit the nail on the head. There has been a lot of mainstream "awareness" of the Y2K problem raised in the past couple of months. but something doesn't ring true in my 20+ years of mainframe programming experience. Anyone have problems taking out a car loan or life insurance policy lately? How about a driver's license renewal? Passport? Employer not able to give you any retirement planning info? (Add your own *many* examples here).

Those predicting the end of the computerized world in a little more than 1000 days need to ask themselves two questions:

1. Why isn't the evidence of massive computer failures already upon us? Surely most businesses *today* routinely deal with 21st century dates in everything from fincance to personnel systems.

2. For those businesses who find themselves surprised by the calendar, why will they spend billions to convert 20+ year old programs rather than simply replace these systems wholesale with newer certified-y2k-compliant systems? Let's be real here.

IMHO the real y2k windfall will be reaped by the likes of MSFT, CA, and the consultants who will spend 1997 making lots of hay over the problem. I predict that there will be a lot of noise and posturing over conversion efforts in 1997 but come 1998 there will be a veritable stampede to replacement systems designed to run on clustered NT systems.

Good luck to those playing the current ZITL momentum (either short or long). I'm staying well clear of this one.
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