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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: robert duke who wrote (11403)10/9/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett  Read Replies (2) of 13594
 
Robert,
How far down is down? As I said a while back on this thread only half kidding, it's possible to read AOL's chart as a large head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at about $80. Though I'm not a great believer in TA, I try to understand it because other people frequently make their buy-sell decisions based on their charts, especially with stocks like AOL that are way ahead of their valuation on fundamentals. The implication of a head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at $80 is support initially around $80 but freefall to perhaps $60 if it drops though $80 (with some support in the mid-70s).

On the other hand (and this is more in line with my own opinion), AOL is trading two standard deviations below its 20-day moving average and has another 2:1 stock split in the wind (see SEC filings). My guess is that it sees 120 again, maybe higher, before it sees 60.
Best,
--Steve

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