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Guy,
It was not my impression that Livemore bullied the market often. He did try to time the turning points. Victor is in his style as well. Victor is quite successful as well. This is a style. Successful traders have different styles, different methods. There is no single and easy way.
"The art of war" by Sun Tze, you mean? It's good for business in general. It has proved itself for 2000 years. Apple is only a 20-years company.
I am very interested in Philosophy. Hold a PhD actually. But trading is more challenging than any other business. Many see trading as gambling. It's quite similar although the probability is different. I hold the view that timing the market is very difficult if not impossible. One has to bear in mind that it's a probability game. So be prepared to say " I am wrong!" once the market proved it. And never put all your eggs in one basket even the probability favors you with 99%. The only 1% can ruin you completely. I am amazed by how many people hold a strong opinion and dig out all the facts to defend his opinion. Even one's opinion is a good one at particular moment, so what? one bad earning report/or good one can change the whole equations. We play the market. The market is governed by supply and demand. As long as supply = demand, the price wont change. This is the single, most important fundamental fact. It was ignored in the effort to price the securities. It is debatable on how to price them. My view is that any stock, bond, option should be priced @ 0 or close unless some great fools are willing to pay more for it. I can offer a share of AAPL @ 1 million US$, who's going to buy it? In another scenario that the AAPL goes to chapter 11, and you get all the source code of MacOS. No one wants to buy these codes. What are you going to do with them? eat them? drink them? or drive them? I hold a Canadian realestat developper. It was a turn around example before it went under. I still have 2000 shares. Any one want them? That serves me a great lesson on how to price securities. Now I only trade AAPL, nothing else. I can diversify with my different long, short positions and the number of trades. I know how much I lose if AAPL hit 0 or 100. It still seems that AAPL = 100 is an unlike scenario but who knows? The risk that AAPL = 0 is more real and can not be completely ignored. They have successfully passed the transition from 68xxx to PPC. Is there any PC company has done the same? Hey, it's APPLE. Right now, the risk that AAPL->0 is much less than July 93 I think.
Above is my view only. It may be biased. You are welcome to mail me any comments. |
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