Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: HairBall who wrote (31024)	10/9/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Gee, everyone is so excited...I can't imagine why <g> Friends, what we have seen so far is the 'expectation phase' causing a blowoff. Negative expectations, that is. Sure, we my rally a bit here. But think about what most Americans are seeing...Volatilty..."so what, I'm long term"...Mutual Fund statements (assuming they even read them) .."so what I'm long term...a Down Market..."buy the dips...et al. The thing we must realize is that everyone has jobs. They still have money. With that comes the automatic 401k payment or Mutual Fund transfer etc. No the things that really matter will take a while to work their way through, just as the Asian Crisis took almost a full year to sink into the mentality of markets here. Or, as the Princeton folks put it: "Nonetheless, there is a high probability that liquidity will not return soon and that the natural economic conditions will eventually determine the fate of all nations. So, as people begin to see their neighbors lose jobs and their pay increased come more slowly, the market will just keep leaking and leaking. No 'crash' now, and the blowoff point (some will call a crash) will be the bottom...but not for a long time now. BWDIK B.

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