David, I think the mistake, if there was one, came much earlier when the company released the information about the mortality rate. As we now know in retrospect, it was meaningless since the mortality rate was low in both the placebo and test groups.
I don't agree with you that the press release was weak. I thought it was informative and said what needed to be said. I think the problem is that people were expecting too much from release of P2 numbers. It's rare, especially in this environment, for the market to make too much over P2 numbers. Hell, there are companies with approved and almost approved products that are sitting in the basement. So who cares about P2?
If the mortality data had been statistically significant, that might have helped. But it wasn't there and I doubt that it would have done much good anyhow for the reasons stated above.
Ariella has pointed out that we will have another crack at a move when a partner is signed up. A partner, and I'm sure I don't have to tell you this (but I'm going to anyway), is important for two reasons. First, it will be an acknowledgement from a major pharma that PARS has a drug that has a strong likelihood of working. If not, they wouldn't invest. Second, until a pharma is signed up, PARS doesn't have the wherewithal to move forward with the development of HU 211. So signing up a partner could very well do what everyone hoped would be done by merely announcing the results.
I think that weakness in the stock may continue for a while. There is no sign of its having bottomed and just as importantly, there are many people who bought for a fast pop who will, if they haven't already, be selling. Well, in that regard, I did my little bit to help by buying some of their shares today.
Good luck. If you learn anything new in Israel, I hope you'll keep us informed.
Ken |
