Donald, I think it is getting close, but I would rather wait another week or two to see if it holds the bottom. We still have a nasty quarterly report to contend with late this month, and currently, my turnips are saying that we could have another drive down hard later next week culminating in a semi catastrophe on the next Monday (Oct 19 or so), and if the decline in the next six trading days is not that bad, then we could go threading lower for another two weeks after that (like early November). After the election (whatever the outcome) I expect a very nice rally to ensue. I do not think that WFR will do particularly great in that rally (maybe a move to the 4.25 to 4.875 or so).
Remember, the turnips have been through a number of "battles" and badly mauled, so, do not count to much on their "forecasts" (VBG).
My model for next year is starting to take shape and it includes a post "year end end rally" bear market in the "big stock". If we reach my target of 7250-7300 before the end of October, then the next big bad bear move will get us from about 8200 to 8400 (where the rally from this October lows should lead) to possibly as low as 6300 or so (right now give or take 200 Dow points). I think that many of the semis will have most of the excesses wrung out of them, so they should withstand next year onslaught better then the market in general. I expect the chips (INTC, AMD, TXN and even MOT) to do better then the equip makers (save few exceptions like VECO after a dip under 20?), and I expect WFR to do just as well (percentage wise) as the chips, but by the middle of next year (if it survives) I still do not see a breach of the 6 to 7 area. Late next year, however I expect a furious bull in the chips and expect WFR to reach fight the battle of the 12 to 15 area. So, yes, I think it might be time to go for a dip, but I am waiting until later this month to actually go fishing. If the low is broken, all bets are off.
Zeev |
