Yes indeed, Mrs. Cramer is timing the market here. She has a track record of doing a good job of it, too.
Several months ago, Jim Cramer predicted that the Dow would rise from its current level to 9500, then drop back to 8500, then trade up to 9500 again. He got the first two legs of that right. That's good market timing to me.
So was Mrs. Cramer's timing in October 1987. She advised Jim to sell everything before the crash. He did and he was in cash that day.
Here's what I want to see: if the Fed does not pull out a surprise ease, and the DJIA does drop 1000 points, are all the skeptics here going to say: wow, that guy made a good call, I am going to listen to him more? Or are they going to find something else to pick on, even if they have to invent more false facts and innuendos? For most of you clowns, I suspect the latter.
That's the thing about market predictions. One side lines up to jeer, another side lines up to defend. Then reality unfolds and tests the prediction. If the prediction succeeds, the jeerers -- especially this crowd -- just drop the topic and invent another complaint. And if the prediction fails, the defenders say "nobody's perfect, you only have to be 70% right to be a genius in this ball game". And they are completely correct, too.
Personally, I heed his warning. But I am still fully invested in a defensive stock. I prefer his stories where Cramer tells in lots of detail what he saw, what he thought about it, what he did, and how it turned out. That helps me _think_ better, which, in the long run, is more valuable to me than following Cramer or Mrs. Cramer's specific predictions about the future. |
