Donald:
Have studied your analysis and read your posts daily. In reviewing the trendlines, I noticed that there is an arguable head and shoulder pattern in NASDAQ beginning in April with low connecting points at the neckline at mid-June, and end of August. Neck-line is down sloping and also marks the downtrend line at 1420.
The Dow has a very similar pattern [if you imagine the left shoulder in early June] with connecting points at the neck-line at mid-June, and end of August. However the Dow needs to fall to about 6900 to get to the neck-line [also downtrend line] which would then allow it to "catch-up" to the NASDAQ pattern.
The stair-step appearance is unmistakable on the DOW with the first step at about 8800 lasting for 1 1/2 weeks, the second at 8500 lasting 3 weeks, and the third at 7600 so far lasting 5+ weeks.
MY QUESTION:
You have commented on the Fibionacci Sequence that corresponds well with the magnitude of the point drops to the various stair-steps [The next which you have predicted to fall to 6600]; The length of time each stair-step holds seems to have some sort of mathematical pattern as well; ie, 1.5, 3, 6, etc.. Do you see a pattern here? and could this time be longer with deeper drops? and could this time pattern be related to your model in some way?
If 6 weeks is the next number, then it would predict the drop to level 6600 to 6900 sometime next week.
Thanks,
Jeff |
