Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: Spunky Beaver who wrote (3917)	10/10/1998 10:27:00 AM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (1) of 18998

Spunky, financial rally a result of deeply oversold conditions for sector. A key difference between recent MP recommendations (PVN and MSTR) and earlier recommendations were that at time of recommendation PVN and MP already had slid very quicky from much higher levels (ie PVN had slid from 80's to 50's very quickly, mstr from 40 to 20+) - the key point is that this had been done in a matter of a week or two and these stocks were/are deeply oversold. Imo they now are having counter rally to work off oversold condition (eg FP sank to mid teens, then rallied to low 20s before tumbling). Specific thoughts: ACF - gapped up on Friday, may run a little more maybe not, but gap should most likely be filled on next downturn. PVN - resistance at 200 d MA in low 60's. I'd be very surprised if it ran above 200 d MA. Motley fool article said fears of credit card securitization are overblown. I think motley missed the point - ie that demand for credit will slow, that the same factors driving down the retail stocks, will slow demand for credit and credit card issuers. When earnings slow, book value becomes relative measure for support and floor is very low. MSTR - only in the euphoria of a few months ago could they command so high an IPO price, but they are growing quickly and have conference coming up later in month. i would not paint IT spending with broad brush, yes y2k effort and economy will slow spending but if someone has good product it will sell. nevertheless they face competition and sell at incredible premium to fundamentals, on any earnings disappointment (ie lack of stellar growth, not necessarily negative earnings) it should be valued like ODIS. final words - mood of threads is often contrary indicator all imo, Gary

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