> I do not see any reason why the market should not
> trade in the SPX range of last fall.
Sure. I'm only suggesting that the perceptions and
conclusions people draw from the relative performance
of the different indices may not have any meaning.
People have been saying; wow, look how the dow is holding
up. But looked at in isolation, it isn't holding up at
all.
BTW - this may be of no interest to you, but just in case.
The Shekel has dropped nearly 30% against the $$ in the same
time frame as the $$ dropped against everything else.
Consequently European products have just become extremely
expensive in Israel. My mother reports to me that the real
estate market, which has been weakening, has just died
completely. Lending has slowed as well. Since loans are
taken in Shekel and most items of consequence are bought
in $$, people are afraid that if the currency situation
reverses the cost of their loans will suddenly shoot up.
On the other hand, absolute real estate values remain
inflated (prices in Tel-Aviv are still higher than those
in Boston). Since land is traded in USD, people are
treating it a like a safe haven, though it's so illiquid
that it doesn't actually function that way.
It looks, at least superficially, like Japan a few years
ago. The important difference is that for many years
land was purchased in cash, so there isn't quite the
spector of bad loans haunting the banks.
can't guarantee the accuracy of some of the above statements,
but that is what my Madre reports.
Shahar |
