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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

TMAR 22.47

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To: Spaw who wrote (883)	10/10/1998 3:58:00 PM
From: monu	of 1153

For anyone who hasn't seen this: Friday October 9, 5:45 pm Eastern Time US GAO asked to investigate IEA world oil forecast WASHINGTON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. General Accounting Office was asked on Friday to investigate the accuracy of the International Energy Agency's forecasts for world oil supply and demand, and whether those projections have unnecessarily helped push down crude prices. Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) wants the GAO to look into the IEA's 1997 and 1998 forecasts that there would be an oversupply of oil, which the senator claims is not as great as the organization predicted. ''I am told that the IEA is at a loss to explain what has happened to the forecasted oversupply and has termed this an 'arithmetic mystery','' the senator said in a letter to the GAO, which is the investigative arm of Congress. Domenici said it is crucial that traders in the oil futures pits at the New York Mercantile Exchange have the most accurate information to ensure orderly trading. The senator asked the GAO to find out how the IEA comes up with it oil supply and demand forecasts. ''Should the IEA be in the business of making oil supply and demand forecasts or should they focus solely on reporting inventory figures?'' Domenici asked. The Independent Petroleum Association of America said it supported the request for a GAO study. The trade group said its analysis shows the IEA may be over-predicting worldwide crude production. For example, the group pointed out that the IEA forecast that world supply would exceed demand by 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) during the second quarter of 1998, but the IEA said that only 1.8 million bpd of excess oil showed up in inventories. That leaves 1.6 million barrels of oil per day missing. ''If IEA predictions are not accurate, and the magnitude of oversupply is much less, the market might very well have reacted in a different way in the last 11 months. Oil prices might not have seen their precipitous drop from where they were one year ago,'' the trade group said.

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