Brian, your take on the timing is accurate to my own experience. I've never been able to get in cheap on the first rush, which is usually by insiders before the announcement. As the news of a split is released, the insiders start taking profit as new investors come in, first the peak, wait for the valley, it almost always comes.
As I,ve said before on this site, the ex dividend date usually signals buying as shareholders(especially profit takers who sold on news) buy in to capture the dividend, and sell again as soon as they become the shareholder of record(another peak and valley). that's when I look for the play a few days before the actual split or a few days after on calls a few monts out. Works good. I'm still refining my dates for potential peaks and valleys to appear.
As with STB, I just bought some Jan calls today, there hasn't been any profit taking, mostly just steady gain. Dividend is to be paid to shareholders of record on Jan 15th, which means you must own the stock about four or five days prior. Option players will anticipate the selling off of stock once shareholders are recorder. My plan is to buy today, and sell this option on Jan 6th or 7th maybe 8th.
Played FRE for a 50% gain in four days based on dividend dates.
Nice to have you here.
Bill Monier |
