Who would of thought my rant would cause the people with a brain to step forward?
Don't flatter yourself, but keep ranting. I've been pissing people off on this thread for a couple of years now, and Tavros has been contributing wisdom, and attempts to keep me diplomatic for about a year. I've outlasted Adam S. (now known as Bandit on SI), and apparently Igor; although I have a strange feeling Igor is lurking in the wings, waiting as patiently as possible for the return of FORE.
Its somewhat easier if you are in the industry to see through all of the analysts "bs" (not that some of them dont drive the market). I cannot stress enough reading the companies Edgar filings and going to the companies web site directly to see their schtick and to find out how to get investor info. Also look at the industry publications to see who is doin what.
Much of that has become irrelevant in current markets. People trust analysts opinions because they have no others to follow. It's almost laughable that they are even offering opinions after recent performance in financial markets.
What is important is how various market sectors are being viewed overall. If Cisco, Lucent, Dell or Microsoft get cut back, so will their smaller cap alternatives (except in rare situations of exemplary performance). Even if they have preceded the drops of the big guys with prior price erosion. And they will lag in recovery behind the larger cap stocks.
Only when confidence in renewed rapid growth is restored will stocks like FORE rebound significantly. So we may have to be patient, and certainly be more careful about the stocks we pick as not all will recover (MADGF, LARS and several others do not look promising).
The one benefit of the disparity in the rate of recovery, is that once large caps rebound, their smaller unrecovered peers make attractive takeover targets.
Well, enough of my ranting. Time to watch a little South Park, then off to the local libations dispensary for a little beer and blues...
james |
