<<The economics of the net is nothing like TV. I think long term it will be very difficult to remain relevant without offerring something beyond information.
David>>
It seems you and the professionals have a different opinion of YHOO..your..."difficulty to remain relevent"...is a 180 degree difference of opinion than Keith Benjamin's, the Internet analyst from BA Robertson Stephens...On Friday 10-9-98 he said:
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THE PRIZE FOR FIRST PLACE GETS BIGGER: We continue to believe there
remains considerable upside to our estimates, particularly as we look
out over the next year or two, with Yahoo!, as leader, capturing a
disproportionate share of advertising and commerce revenues. For
reference, we estimate that Yahoo! revenues in 2001 will approach $700
million, relative to our estimate of U.S. advertising revenues of more
than $6 billion in 2001. This would give Yahoo! just over 10% market
share, by our estimate. We expect commerce revenues to be significantly
additive as Yahoo! benefits from both rental and transaction payments
related to buying in stores renting space on the site. For reference,
we estimate e-tailing (rental) payments to networks (landlords) will
exceed $1.8 billion in 2001. If Yahoo! received 10% of that, its share
would exceed $180 million. International revenues can also be
additive. We are assuming Yahoo! essentially maintains audience share
and reaches some 100 million people out of our 2001 estimate of 160
million people worldwide. Generally, we expect more revenues per Yahoo!
member than our 2001 assumption of almost $5 per person visiting the
network.
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Mr. Benjamin uses words and phrases like: "leader", "...disproportionate share of advertising and commerce revenues.", "significantly additive", "We are assuming Yahoo! essentially maintains audience share...", "...we expect more revenues per Yahoo! member than our 2001 assumption..."..........and did you see his estimates on his 2001 advertising revenues (for reference YHOO just reported 53.6 million dollars)--700 million dollars..He says that represents 10% of ALL projected advertising expenses, by all companies, using all mediums (T.V., radio, newspaper, magazine, billboards, internet,--everything).........David, if Mr. Benjamin is even HALF right you will be sorry in 5-10 years from now you didn't go long and just stay put.
Regards, George
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