-------Last two weeks to exit the Street? ---------------
I made a bet with LT no long ago and I lost. I told him I was wrong privately. I have been a bull for a long time till about a week ago. Also, I have been wrong all the times recently, so I dare to speak. But, anyway, I always admit it when I realize I am wrong. Here is what changed my mind.
The collapse of dollar. There is no fundamental to the currency. Everything is at the trader's hands. Once break the trend, it will go one direction. I think I perfectly predicated the top of the dollar (Sometime after the Fed intervention), now it really starts to crash. Remember what happened when those Asian's currencies collapse?
The T-bond collapse. This is a very good indication to signal the general market's collapse (I mentioned that too before). Everything should go down including bond, currency, gold etc. During market collapsing, you have to keep rate high to stabilize the currency. So, the Fed will have a hard time to cut rate further, while the intention of cut has been build-in in the market.
Japan's market is in a very bad shape. The rise of Yen will give them a hard time. I suspect recent currency/bond problems are caused by them, because it started when their markets hit 13-year low. Collapse of Japan certainly will prevent the rise in US markets.
Oct/Nov months are the tricky months. A lot of adjustments need to be done on the Street, for tax/bonus purposes. At the very first day of this month, the BLUE-BLUE index was up, which means funds tried to escape to stocks like IBM, etc. In any case, they will have less problems. But, this will cause more problems later on.
People are waiting for the earnings. I am sure they are fine this time, but companies probably will attach a warning sign with their reports. Look what happened to companies which have already reported: GE, YHOO, AMD. They are all waiting to go down.
DELL is still holding on well. It is still not worse than the time during UPS strikes. I am not sure if it can hold on.
Last, if all above is not matters, from the the charts, DOW, NASDAQ are in the worst shape in a decade. They all have a monthly oversold conditions while prices are still high. This is actually the main reasons I changed my mind.
Good luck to everyone!
P.S., I have been wrong big time recently. So, this is my views on the markets and I could be wrong again. See, Warning sign! :-) |
