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Technology Stocks : International FiberCom, Inc. (NASDAQ- IFCI)

IFCI 0.0600

0.0%

Jun 7 5:00 PM EST

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To: George the Greek who wrote (1020)	10/11/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: david james	Read Replies (3) of 3541

Well, I suppose I could throw in my opinion (worth around 2 cents). Looking at the recs from Kaufman Brothers and Cruttenden Roth, and listening to the questions and answers at the telecommunications conference, I use the following to make my estimate of valuation. Despite the price, I think we remain under heavy accumulation by institutions, which we will start to see in another month or two when the filings come in. However, there is some caution regarding whether IFCI will successfully integrate the new acquisitions. I believe Cruttenden Roth suggests we should be currently trading at a P/E of 20 on 1999 earnings. The current estimates are for 60 cents - so that's a price of $12, and the 60 cents will certainly be improved. Cruttenden Roth also recently increased their target price to $15 I believe, so they may have also recently increased their estimates. I think the most conservative valuation would be to give them a P/E of around 20-30 based on the earnings projected over the next four quarters acting assuming that quarter was an example of the next four quarters. That should be the lower bound. So the 9 cents of last quarter would be 36 cents for the year and with a P/E of 20 that would be $7.20. 9 cents * 4 20 = $7.20 I think we do at least 14 to 15 cents this next quarter (maybe 18 cents before one time charges). 14 4 * 20 = $11.20 (December target) 19 cents in the 4th quarter 19 * 4 * 20 = $14.40 ( Feb to March target) 23 cents 1st quarter 1999 23 * 4 * 20 = $18.40 (May 1999) A P/E of only 20 would the sort of growth IFCI shows, would be quite conservative, but it certainly shows the potential. Furthermore, it sounds like Charly's estimates are higher than this. This puts them on track for beating $1.00 in 1999. Who knows what they can do for the year 2000. Is this wacky? David

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