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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: donald sew who wrote (55219)10/11/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (1) of 58727
 
I admire the work you. I use a rule of thumb that seems to work.

If the market is lower than it was at the previous expiration, then expiration should have an upward bias. Expiration will have a downward bias if the market has been rising since the previous expiration.

It's my impression that this often works better than counting up the open positions. This may be because many derivative contracts are private and thus not reported. It could also be that too many people calculate the max-pain prices and trade on that info, thereby altering the outcome.
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