Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: RGinPG who wrote (30621)	10/12/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

RGinPG; ...VRC & GLBL I think VRC & GLBL offer 2 especially compelling opportunities. 1. The bad news is ''ALL'' out on these two... 2. The timing is perfect; their ''bad news'' came out at the peak of the selloff and negative sentiment; which gave us indisputable ''over-kill'' reaction being that we were in an oversold enviroment. This is the key here - for a buyer; this could not have played out any better... 3. These 2 stocks have good institutional ownership; which killed them on the downside, but will correspondingly lift them on the upside. 4. While I do not expect the money to turn on a dime and return here overnight, it will return on any positive news... also, an entire new group of buyers are entering here. 5. The upside to their ''median'' price of either the mid-September rally or more importantly their median price levels of this past april-may; which I would use as a target for this coming april-may; offers some incredible upside - much higher than their peers; giving enough ''reward'' to offset any further ''risk.'' 6. GLBL ran from $12 to $25 from last Jan-May; and had a Mid Sept high of $13.87 - we have a double to the Sept levels and a ''4 bagger'' to the May levels. VRC ran from $16-$31 from Jan. - May; and had a mid-Sept high of $10 11/16 - giving us a 50% increase to the Sept levels and "4+ bagger'' to the May levels. One doesn't have to base this on returning to the April-May price levels; allthough I think this is a conservative price target 6-18 months out; just returning to the Sept. price levels gives outstanding returns. The key to eliminating further downside (which is very small - imho) is using tight stops here - I see few better risk vs. reward plays here - but, do use tight stops... Both companies have good balance sheets and are not high debt/leveraged, GLBL especially has been here (tough times) before. A tremendous opportunity with another Fed rate cut imminent; Japan getting its act together, the Yen strengthening and with the questions concerning the legitimacy of the ''over-suppy'' numbers - crude looks like it will continue to move steadilly upward. Add Veritas/VTS here - and these 3 look to be ''the'' value plays of the oilpatch imho.

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