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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 142.76

-2.7%

3:56 PM EST

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To: John Chen who wrote (71458)	10/12/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) of 176387

John- If Dell would hit 40 and change again in the coming weeks(absent of NEW industry news/earnings (downside) surprises/forecasts from Compaq/Intel)..it (Dell) would bounce so high from that level (due to all those buying, still kicking themselves from not getting in this last time it hit 40) it would be ridiculous..... However, I think it is unlikely that we will retest 40 and change....I think, though, we could see another dip (starting sometime between late Wed- sell the news.....or maybe starting Monday after options exp...... next week and lasting thru early Nov....as you mentioned tax-related selling could also play its part...hoewever....if this were to occur, I cant see Dell bounded down too low...maybe down to 47 or so...before a powerful up move in November/December.. Mind you, this is all conjecture on my part...the best thing to do with Dell is to hold for the long-term..the company's fundamentals remain very strong....I am not much of a trader...although I will buy values on a big dip...picked up a boat load of Cisco at 42.25 last week...still patting myself on the back for that one...Shorting Dell is always fraught with risk.... So, my advice, if Dell dips, dont wait for another 40 and change...I doubt you'll see it....buy it somewhat higher..the good earnings coming up (this week) will put in a new floor (at least for Dell)...Dell's earnings in Nov. will put in more support at higher levels.. A few more predictions: No recession next year..the market will be pricing this back in in Nov/Dec...we will get confirmation of this (no recession) early next year..Stocks with continued strong earnings (like Dell) will continue to do very well...with lowering interest rates, companies like Dell can enjoy higher (or as high) PE's in late 1998/99 than in the past...In this market (as in any market), it all depends on what you own... Good luck to you....I dont think we'll see Thursday's characters for a while....

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