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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 142.68

-2.7%

Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Peter Greenhill who wrote (71515)	10/12/1998 5:03:00 PM
From: Craig Lieberman	Read Replies (1) of 176387

Peter, Re: Anyone want to predict the Dell price for 12th October 2003?!! I will. Based on 5 more years patterned growth in the earnings of 15%->15%->15%->10% (over previous quarter's earnings) without any stumbling or slowing down (a bold assumption grant you) results in earnings in October 2003 for the previous 4 quarters to that equal to around $10.50/share. With a PE of 30 against that (very conservative for the PE), you get a share price of $315/share. With a trailing PE at that point of 50 you have $525/share. Any stumbles in the next 5 years would of course invalidate this. However, you have to figure that it will have just tanked 30% of its value and might be as low as $200/share at that point in October. The over $300/share price for DELL is not unreasonable considering that a price of $315/share would be actually be $75/share with two more splits. Considering that DELL has split 6 times in 6 years, we might expect at least 2 more in the next 5 years. If it splits three more times in 5 years, then the $525/share price would actually be $65/share. Would that my wildest dreams come true..... Craig

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