'
The King Kong of Y2K
By Jim Lord
October 12, 1998
The true nature of the Y2K story has been misunderstood. After all the
effort put into chasing down those pesky little monkeys (mainframes
and desktop computers), a Nine Hundred Pound Gorilla has
emerged on the scene. He is called embedded processor and he
looks like one very tough dude.
To start off with, why do embedded processors use dates in the first
place? It's easy to see how financial computers might have problems
with the two digit year "00," but why do traffic lights, elevators, medical devices,
electrical and other utility plants, satellites and similar systems care about dates?
For simplification, let's define embedded processors as all computers that are not
mainframe or desktop systems. This is a broad definition but it allows me to discuss
all the gray areas of the topic.
An embedded processor has a narrow rather than a generic purpose. It can contain a
simple, single-purpose chip the size of the head of a match as might be found in a
wristwatch. It might be a fully capable computer on a chip the size of a matchbook. It
could contain a computer mother-board installed in a much larger system such as a
missile or a patient monitoring system. It might even be many chips, boards and
systems controlled by a central computer. The common attribute in all these
applications is that embedded processors have a customized rather than a
general-purpose nature.
Here are some examples of how these devices deal with dates and how they might
fail at the Year 2000. (The majority of embedded processors don't process future
dates and, thus, do not fail prior to the January 1, 2000 turnover point as do many
mainframe and desktop systems. There are indications, however, that some
embedded processors will test good for the January 1, 2000 rollover but fail later. In
some cases this can be YEARS afterwards. An excellent article on this topic by Mark
Frautschi [PhD Physics] can be found at www.tmn.com/~frautsch/y2k2.html.)
Hidden But Unused Date Capability. Some embedded processors have date
functionality but are not programmed to use it. A fancy lathe might use an embedded
computer to precisely control the physical operation of the machine. No dates are
processed whatsoever but the computer chip contains a complete date routine that
could use two digit years.
Like a time bomb, the software may freeze or malfunction when its calendar rolls over
to "00" and the lathe becomes disabled until the computer chip is reset or replaced
by a technician. The extent of this problem is unknown but testing is revealing
instances of this sort of computerized "hand grenade."
Time-duration Processing. Many computerized control systems calculate time
duration. Suppose, for example, a manufacturing process requires a valve to be
turned on for ten minutes once each hour and the system uses an embedded
processor with full time/date capability (a common configuration). A simple computer
program might:
Turn the valve on
Count ten minutes
Turn the valve off
Count fifty minutes
Return to the first step
There are two ways to count the minutes. The first uses the computer's "clock" which,
like a metronome, simply ticks regularly (ten times per second, let's say). To count ten
minutes, the software counts six thousand ticks of the clock.
The second method uses the computer's date/time function, which behaves like a
robot. When you ask, it tells you the time and date. Not just the time, mind you, but the
complete time AND date (and there's the rub). Time durations can easily be
calculated by continuously subtracting two time/dates until the result equals the time
duration needed. While this is more complex for the computer (which doesn't care) it
might actually be easier for the programmer to use (who does care) depending on the
computer language employed.
The problem arises at the Year 2000 turnover when many computers, revert back to
1980 or 84 instead of advancing properly. This throws the time duration calculation
out of whack possibly causing equipment errors and shutdowns.
Data Recording. Many automated systems collect and store data from sensors that
continuously monitor physical conditions such as voltage, temperature, pressure,
speed, etc. The data are then analyzed on a real-time or historical basis to track
system performance or capacity. Industrial processes such as manufacturing, oil
drilling and chemical processing often use these measuring systems. Other common
uses are diagnostic systems for equipment, facilities or even people.
Dates are used in these systems because the data are meaningless without knowing
WHEN the measurement took place. Problems arise at the Year 2000 turnover
because the time stream breaks off when the year reversion to 1980/84 occurs. Many
sophisticated systems will shut down believing the system has malfunctioned.
Maintenance Tracking. Many computerized safety and health related systems
include a built in maintenance tracking function and will shut down if maintenance is
not performed on time. Such schedule-related software is, obviously, date sensitive.
Examples are elevators, medical devices, precision test equipment and emergency
equipment and vehicles.
This maintenance tracking function could easily be unknown to the user. A medical
device, for example, might require maintenance every four months for safety and
medical liability reasons. If the device exceeds the required periodicity, it shuts down.
At the century rollover, this device might shut down when the computer chip reverts
back to an incorrect year believing many years had elapsed without maintenance.
Satellites exhibit a special case of date dependency. The precise position of these
devices relative to the earth must be constantly monitored and controlled. If not done,
the satellite's orbit decays and the system either falls into the earth's atmosphere or
flies off into the sun. This precise positioning is done with computers and is
dependent on time, date and position.
Additionally, most satellites collect and send data detailing the status of onboard
systems (called telemetry) back to earth for analysis. Each item of data is, of course,
tagged with the date and time.
Our modern way of life is highly dependent on hundreds of satellites used primarily for
communications (telephone and television), navigation and weather prediction. The
recent failure of the Galaxy Four satellite and the widespread effect on pager service
and credit card processing was a dramatic peek at what Y2K might bring us as
dozens of satellites or their ground control stations fail to operate properly.
It is even possible that the Galaxy Four failure was Y2K related (let me emphasize, I
have not verified this possibility). The failure could have been the result of flawed
testing following Y2K repairs to the satellite or its ground control system. (In a
previous article on this site, I characterized this kind of event as a "Y2K Accident,"
and predicted that such events will cause the highest incidence of computer software
glitches in history.)
Single-purpose Systems. Many systems employ personal computers with
specialized, date dependent software. Examples include parking, electronic toll
collection, access control, and facility security systems. Such systems can fail at the
century date turnover because of the year reversion problem mentioned earlier or
because they actually process dates internally. Parking and toll collection systems, for
example, use dates and times in fee calculations.
High-level Management Systems. Many large applications tie smaller systems
together for high-level management purposes. A high-rise office building, for
example, might coordinate the management of parking, access control, security
alarms, environmental, elevators, fire alarm, and sprinkler control with a single
management computer. This would enable such capabilities as disabling elevators
when a fire is detected or on weekends when the building is empty.
In some cases, the individual components may not be date sensitive, but the larger
system could be vulnerable. Elevator manufacturers such as Otis, for example insist
their products are free from date sensitivity but many elevator or building
management systems do process dates for maintenance or system performance
tracking. Factories, refineries, power and water plants, residential neighborhoods
and transportation systems are other possible examples.
Date Programmable Devices. Many devices employing embedded processors can
actually have the date programmed by the user. VCR's, video cameras, fax
machines, and copiers are good examples. Some less obvious and possibly more
important gadgets such as thermostats, security systems, bank vaults and traffic
lights use date tracking to alter system behavior on weekends.
For example, to save energy costs, many industrial thermostats can be programmed
to reduce the temperature in a commercial building that is unoccupied on weekends.
Testing by thermostat manufacturers has indicated that as many as one third of these
devices will fail outright on January 1, 2000 and require replacement by a technician.
Upon failure, the building's heating system is disabled. This is a serious concern
considering the problem will occur in the dead of winter and on Friday night of a
three-day holiday weekend.
These are some of the more common embedded processor uses and potential
failures. There are as many more as there are creative programmers in the world. As
the results of testing become known, it is increasingly clear that the embedded
system component of Y2K is, by far, the most important part of the problem. One
recent study, for example, indicates that the embedded processor component of Y2K
could be as much as two to four times as severe as the mainframe and desktop
components COMBINED.
Maybe that gorilla weighs nine THOUSAND pounds.
-------
My Tip of the Week is to keep increasing your understanding of the Year 2000
Computing Crisis and, in particular, the timing aspects of the problem. Your personal,
family and community preparedness plans for Y2K are dependent on gaining a clear
understanding of what is going to happen and when it will take place. Although Y2K is
a simple technical problem it manifests itself in complex ways. Every day seems to
teach us something new.
Good Luck !
Jim Lord
Browse the Y2K Tip of the Week Archives for previous editions of this column, and
see many more practical Y2K Tips such as these in my book, A Survival Guide for
the Year 2000 Problem, a sample of which can be previewed at
www.SurviveY2K.com.
207.82.250.251 |
