INDEX UPDATE
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I am still sticking to my original position that the top of decline would occur between OCT 7-13. Although the MINI-STAIRSTEP(7500-7900) was pierced to the upside, such has not changed my position.
The target for the top/decline to start is OCT 13; however there is a chance that the decline may have already started at today's highs. I am expecting one more up day for tomorrow on a intraday basis, and the decline could start as early as tomorrow afternoon or Wed.
If 8182(8232) is not pierced to the upside, it would mean that the market produced LOWER HIGHs, and implies that LOWER LOWS will be forthcoming. Many analysts have turned positive recently, but I feel that the verdict is still out.
My short-term technicals are in the 75-90 range which is overbought/CLASS 2 SELL, so therefore feel one more day.
The VIX got as low as 40 it bounced and the market started selling off.
The DOW sold off about 45% of todays highs. The BKX and XBD were substantially off their highs. The Hitechs did well, keeping in mind how strong they sold off recently.
The market internals improved, but not that substantially to support a 185 point run, and as it turned out the 185 point gains were not held.
I do question a huge selloff, but as I said earlier if the DOW does not exceed 8182 it would produce a LOWER HIGH which implies LOWER LOWS. If 7400 is broken I feel that we could see 7000 quickly, and possibly even below 7000 for the forthcoming downswing. A break of 7400 intraday by 50 points (7350) with heavy volume would confirm 7000 shortly thereafter.
Seeya
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