congratulations on those puts dude...why oh why couldnt WFC just wait one more day before their sale...yuck..
at least I am short on DSG's favorite stock...RNWK
and will go short IBM soon...
name that tune.....on my profile oh led head..without cheating of course
if you use IE you will miss my pic on there...
btw, Don...are you a secret subscriber to jerry favors...or is Jerry favors reading this thread...LOLOLOLOL ;-)
o: +donald sew (30896 )
From: +David Plonk
Monday, Oct 12 1998 6:55PM ET
Reply # of 31365
Don,
I agree with your assessment that the turn back down should begin soon, and most
likely tomorrow. I also agree that the next turn down will demolish the trading range
we've been in, with at least a day or two setting new records in decline for a day and
volume. We're getting ready for a bloodbath. As long as we hold below 1020 Dec.
S&P futures, and 1015 SPX, this scenario is in no danger.
The dramatic declines should begin by Wednesday, and should continue into 10/21 + or
- 1 day, based on 16,22,26 & 36 day cycles that call for a s-t change of direction in
that time frame. Last Thursday's change in direction was initiated by the 16 and 22 day
cycle lining up there, which in the recent past has only resulted in a 1 to 3 day turn, then
the trend resumes.
This scenario will be confirmed by a lower close beginning no later than Wednesday,
followed by continued lower closes into the middle of the week after expiration.
In elliott terms, I believe we are finishing up a 1-2, 1-2. Those familiar with elliott wave
theory know this is the initial development in a five wave pattern, just prior to
acceleration at the center of the powerful wave three. The first wave 1 began from the
post rate reduction spike high (9/29), and ended on 10/2 @ 5:50am (globex). The first
wave 2 completed 10/6 @ 9:40am. The second wave 1 began there, and completed on
10/9 @ 11:20am. The second wave 2 started there, and we completed wave a of 2 at
today's highs, are working on wave b of 2 currently and will move higher from tonight's
globex low/tomorrow's early morning low in a wave c of 2 rally, that I expect will be
choppy with lots of spikes, but that won't significantly clear the 1020 area.
After this c of 2 rally terminates, which will be no later than Wednesday by noon, and
could be as soon as the late Tuesday, we will be greeted by a wave 3 of 3 of 3 selloff
that will carry into next week. This is the portion of the '29 selloff that was called the
"crash." My minimum target is 880SPX/6800DOW, but 730/5600 is a possiblility.
Once again, you and I are in exact alignment on a serious market move. Do you recall
what happened the last few times this occurred? I sure do!! $$$$ !!!! Heck, we've even
got Mr. Hueb in on this one with us...fancy that!!
Regards,
David |
