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Technology Stocks : Gateway (GTW)

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To: Kory who wrote (6722)10/12/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein  Read Replies (2) of 8002
 
Love....

And I love it when young Turks under 30 think their positions in the market are bulletproof, that the business cycle has been defeated, and all that you need is optimism <g>.

You have no idea how low stocks can go, even the stocks of great companies. Stocks that are cheap get even cheaper. I know you are making a contrarian argument about all the negativism meaning a bullish move, but the fact is many of the markets bulls are still alive and well, just making "minor adjustments". Sorry, but when a demented old goat like Joseph Granville turns bullish in June of this year and says October will finish much higher than it was at the start of the month, you gotta know the market is a goner. You are probably too young to remember, but Granville was a bear from 1982 until June of this year.

As for GTW, it is looking both technically and fundamentally weak. It's multiples are way out of whack, and it does not have the position in the business market that Dell does. Unit sales are forecast to go up 14% next year because of business purchases to combat y2k problem, and that's just the first half of the year. But revenue growth is estimated to be only 3%. Margins will go all to hell. So Dell and IBM can hold high multiples a while longer (they are better entrenched in the business and government niches), but GTW is a goner.

DocStone
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