Cohu, Inc. (COHU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)

COHU 29.81

+1.6%

10:13 AM EST

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To: Henry D who wrote (979)	10/12/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 7837

Henry, Just got in from a late advertising meeting - didn't have time to analyse volume /breadth /value of pop. I t is my hope that investors will realize that in the face of declining new orders these companies have much experience in cutting costs with reduced orders.Some did an excellent job on 1996.As I have stated before a lot of this is DEJA VU. It is my hope that the market will discount this slowdown well before book to bill accelerates and the rosey future is known.That is how it happened in july - november 1996. Once a bottom is made and profits ,albeit at a reduced level, occur the future is discounted as brighter and the underlying stock price is in an uptrend well before earnings are confirmed. This could be a continuation of the downtrend (in that case the first quick spike would be to 12 3/4. This could be followed by a double bottom in nov-dec back to the twelves.This could also be a lower double bottom that looks like a continuation ( V- bottom ). These occur less frequently but are very effective in shaking out weak owners.You are to be congratulated for buying in a contrary moment - this takes great strength to believe in value over fear and to buy when greed is not the primary emotion.V - bottoms have ocurred in Micron and other stocks it is a viable alternative. We must now look for volume and a bidding up process that grows on increasing volume.If we see this - then the next risky leverage up point will be after a too fast rise to the 18 - 21 price rise - with a fall back to the 17-19 range.This will be one of the last great opportunities to leverage up and still catch the easy big rise points. There will be other fall back points and there will be what I call glide slopes - but now we are still bottomfishing.This long term downtrend must be broken by the slow deliberate sideways price action that most likely will take us to nov -dec. I really did like the price action of Adex lately .This looks like a firm bottom.It makes me put more faith in the possibility of Cohu putting in a V- bottom.Cohu's greatest strength is its improving time segmented volume. Some times I watch this stuff too close.Bottomline is Cohu is a great value and we should have a plan to buy more if it gets below 15 again. In between it really is exciting to watch our dogs learn how to walk again.It is ever so early in their learning curve and it is time to be aggressive.In our future we will almost in disbelief wonder how we had any doubt about Cohu at a PE of 5. Remember the winner is the one who buy the most at the lowest price! BWDIK Bob

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