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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis
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To: Gary Clarke who wrote (1897)10/13/1998 5:40:00 AM
From: Q.  Read Replies (1) of 2506
 
Right you are Gary. I would expect tax loss selling to be diminished this year since fewer investors have gains to offset.

What I don't know is how much.

Surely there will still be some investors who have gains. Actually the S&P 500 is up a few % compared to 12 mos ago.

It's mainly smaller stocks that have been killed. Compared to a year ago:
* the S&P midcap index is down 14%
* the Russell 2000 is down 31%.

So it boils down to this: how many investors are there who sold their shares of big stocks & mutual funds this year for a gain, and happened to have a few small cap stocks too. These people would surely be tempted to take the tax loss on the small caps.

Surely it won't be as many people as in 96 and 97 who do tax loss selling. I just don't have a good feel for how many it will be, and whether it is worthwhile to try to short stocks to play it this year.
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