Well, I have to admit that of all of the stocks I follow, PeopleSoft's recent reactions have really shocked me.
Clearly, the economic turmoil and general stock market conditions is enough to slice out a good part of the premium this stock has enjoyed, but things seem to be getting a little out of hand.
It looks like all of the goodwill that PeopleSoft has built up over the past few years by executing well, keeping conservative books, and providing good investor guidance has been tossed out the window. I believe the current sentiment is fueled by fear and uncertainty, but will be overcome by fact and reality.
Unfortunately, it looks like our next opportunity to gather fact is next Tuesday. In the meantime, for those that are able to resist being sucked into the panicked herd, there is great opportunity.
Couple of Points on The Issues:
1) The Baan situation doesn't impact my view on PeopleSoft. Baan has been an accounting house of cards for a long time, so it's very difficult to make any intelligent analogies.
2) The BT Alex Brown situation is curious. But I would bet $100 that if the stock price hadn't dropped today, it wouldn't be an important conversation point on the thread today. Given the amount of fear and uncertainty present it appears to have taken on a life of its own. If I had to guess, I agree with the previous idea that it might be PSFT snubbing BT Alex Brown for its recent downgrade. Or, perhaps, something less nefarious - that PSFT knew that it would be difficult to conduct its presentation without potentially compromising the quiet period, as they have said.
3) In the unlikely event that we are on the cusp of an earnings disappointment, it will be ugly, it will include lawsuits, and I will be one pissed off investor. But, up to this point PeopleSoft has been very good in its guidance, and the only reason to believe that this report will be the exception is generalized fear. I would rather go into this report using the recent guidance as my compass.
As always, it will be interesting to watch it unfold.
Cheers. Rick. |
