Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (31517)	10/14/1998 8:41:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) of 94695

I just pulled this comment by Fleckenstein off another message: The AMG data showed that a couple of billion dollars exited the market. My pet theory has been that the market needed about $2-3 billion of new money per week to keep the party going. I have felt that if inflows stopped, we would begin a decline, and if there were net outflows, we would have a real disaster. The latter appears to be happening. This is exactly my view; I did not have access to a computer when last Thursday's data came in (on amgdata.com), but the outflows are approaching what I have been saying for eighteen months ought to be enough to start the big cascade. I would rather that the recent mini-rally had continued because I wanted to put more money into Prudent Bear at a better level, but yesterday may have been the end of it.

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