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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis- Indicators & Systems

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To: Brian Lempel who wrote (3179)	10/14/1998 9:32:00 AM
From: Richard Estes	Read Replies (2) of 3325

In my 30 years of TA, no valid studies have been performed. There are too many variables. Will you run only on stocks you select? on all stocks? Will you restrict yourself to one indicator? what periods will you use in indicators? what is your goal for proof? what software and data will you use? Will you have more than 5 years data? Let say you compare a 200 day MA to a 21 day MA. the 200 MA requires nearly a year to have first data point, the 21 is only a month. The 200 misses the good or bad results of that 200 day period. An indicator that gives good 5 day results won't beat buy/hold unless you take into account the time money was at risk. I could go on for pages giving you reasons why NO valid study is available. And you can't compare to buy and hold or funnymentals. I know of no valid entry/exit measure in funnymentals, nor am I aware of entry for buy and hold except where your data starts. I wish you luck taking on such a project. TA is not subjective, people who use it are. use MACD(13,34,89) as one of your indicator

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