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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (25280)	10/14/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried, <iPaul, this economist explains what happened last week and sees no recession for '99. His reasoning is convincing. I have a DW NYSE Bull Point and Figure chart going back to 1974. The Chart shows BP lows of 1974 and 1987 at 6%. In 1980 the low was 14%. Our low in Sept. '98 was DW 16%. In looking at today's 10/13 NYSE DW bpnyse chart it appears that we are following the same pattern off the lows of 1974 and 1987 where we saw the same type of pull back before moving on up. (Go to dorseywright.com key in bpnyse and then click on the expanded button) You will be shown the chart going back to 1985. Additionally, when we consider the 23% average of 23.4% of the third year (1999) of the Presidential Cycle and the 16.7% for the 4th year (2000) the statistics appear to indicate that we probably will have a good year in 1999. I always remind myself that the politicians will do everything they can to release $$$$ to win re-election.<g> It is in their own self-interest. Just my opinions. Paul V.

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