*AV*--I need to stay firmly on the sidelines with GALTF due to the F at the end. With very few exceptions (ASMLF, IRDIF, CREAF, and just a few others) the Foreign stocks are going to be unpredictable given the global economic chaos. there is no way to effectively factor in the market mentality for these companies.
With that said, I think we have not fully priced in the lackluster news for GALTF. I think we are in a wait and see situation. At least until NetWorld - InterOp in Atlanta Oct 21-23rd. With AMCC not doing well these days but seeing some life in both VTSS and ANAD, we have a mixed bag. By the 24th we should have a better handle on who the lead sled dogs are for the gigabit ethernet and other wireless type connectivity products. GALTF does have a nice situation relative to silicon availability and it is trading at its lows right now. I do not see much downside as much as I see some stagnation. IF I had to chose between a long or short position (that is, if you force me off the sidelines), I would be betting on the long side<GGG>.
BTW-the reason for this attitude is that I am having a hard time trying to figure out the US based stocks these days<GGG>.
I got a great example to illustrate this point. I talked about a company, ESFT, a month or two ago and it tanked big time. However, unlike some other stocks we could talk about relative to tanking, I was 100% on target for this company. They just released their numbers today. So, this is the run down in a nutshell.
1. 6th consecutive quarter of sales growth.
2. Q3 revenues of $1.48 million, representing an increase of $1.175 million over the year ago September 1997 comprable quarter.(+384%)
3. Q3 revenues were ahead of Q1 revenues by $746,000 (+102%) and ahead of second quarter revenues by $349,000 (+32%)
4. Revenues for the first 9 months of 1998, ending Sept 30, 1998 totalled $3.335 million compared to $788,000 for same period last year (+323%).
5. The company's sales revenues have increased by ~40% on average, quarter to quarter for the last year and a half.
Whoops, it is all here in this yahoo release. biz.yahoo.com
Go figure!!!! Lots of foreign investors dragged this stock down recently since it is the price you pay to raise capital by going overseas. Pity all of us for the manipulation that took place. Of course, the stock is down on this news. SO you tell me what was wrong with this picture to cause the mayhem.
Now sales are only half of the picture, I know. But the company cheaply outsourced the hardware to cut costs and to improve margins. all that remains internally were salaries, operating costs, and the software. none of these could have been grossly dragging down the stock but you never know. Waiting for the other shoe to drop on this baby. Sometimes you lose even when you are correct in your assumptions. Screaming buy now. Well, I am screaming about what I paid for it, and screaming on how the average down price today would have been a great initial entry price<GGG> |
