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Technology Stocks : Voice-on-the-net (VON), VoIP, Internet (IP) Telephony
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To: Stephen B. Temple who wrote (1532)10/14/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: Stephen B. Temple  Read Replies (2) of 3178
 
Economy Curbs '02 IP Forecast

October 14, 1998 Inter@ctive Week via NewsEdge Corporation : Expectations of spectacular growth for Internet Protocol telephony must be shaved considerably in recognition of severe economic and regulatory threats, according to a forthcoming analysis.

Last year, Probe Research Inc. (www.proberesearch.com) forecast Internet Protocol (IP) telephony would seize 11 percent to 12 percent of voice and fax traffic among countries by 2002. Now, in a soon-to-be released report, Executive Vice President Hilary Mine projects IP will take only 6.5 percent by 2002 and will not hit 12 percent until 2005. The 1998 estimate is 0.3 percent.

The caution stems first from world financial problems, which are making IP telephony equipment such as gateways and gatekeepers much more expensive in foreign countries with weakened currencies.

Mine poses a no-win situation for IP telephony from any significant change in national telecom policies -- whether toward reregulation, which would hurt new entrants and slow growth of IP networks overall, or rapid deregulation, which would eliminate the pricing advantage unregulated IP services have against traditional telcos.

"Either way, the economic impetus for IP telephony goes away," the analyst said. "We need to have slow deregulation."




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