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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16632)	10/14/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (5) of 42787

FAVORS tonight. NOTICE that he is now pushing back his timetable for the crash. He says between now and mid-November. This is of interest to me because I subscribe to a monthly letter by an excellent cycles guy (Chuck Carpino- 713.464.5671) and he says that the INDU will top around Oct 26--28, then drop, lower high around 2 November, then head just about straight down until Nov 18. I think there is a little more upside to this market, and I think Favors now thinks so as well. Jerry Favors Analysis - Wednesday, October 14, 1998 8 p.m. Last evening we told you that we expected at least one more rally back up near this week's highs before any top. The Dow at the lows today was down as much as 59 points, then began to rally. At the highs this afternoon the Dow was up as much as 110 points. The Dow then began to pullback in the last hour and closed up just 30.38. The rally may or may not have alittle further to go this week. Our minimum parameters for this rally have been satisfied. The Trin-5 has bottomed below 4.00 this week,which normally means a high has either been seen or is near. The 10-Day Trin was in oversold territory for the last several days but today closed at 0.93,no longer in oversold territory. In fact during a Bear Market that is close to an overbought reading. We are frankly not sure of the next day or two but we remain basically bearish,even if we do see another rally back above 8162.70 intraday. Lower prices will follow and if 7400 is broken on a closing basis a major decline should follow. We believe this will occur between here and mid-November. We still have downside projections calling for 6406 plus or minus 300 points intraday. Any rally above 8049 on a print basis in the Dow tomorrow morning will signal higher prices very short term. Any decline below 7878 on a print basis in the Dow will be short term bearish and signal lower prices short term. We believe there should be some further rally before final top. The NYSE cash index should rise above 501.22 and it has not done so as yet.Today's high was 500.52. Short term traders you should be preparing to go short,but not until our signal.Stock traders and mutual fund switchers should be preparing to go 100% short on our signal this week. Mutual fund switchers we may choose to go with another bear fund instead of the Rydex Ursa when the time comes. Several subscribers have made us aware of certain Bear Funds that have outperformed the Rydex Ursa fund. If we are convinced they are a better and safer way for you to go we will recommend one of these other bear funds when the time comes.

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