Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (31516)	10/14/1998 10:36:00 PM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Hi Bill, Your probably OK with your puts. We've had the normal pull back rally to the top of a consolidation phase IMHO. The tech earnings have been better than expected - we weren't expecting much. Now we wait to see how much the recession effects PC demand and xmas sales. Normally consumer demand is the highest at the end of an economic cycle. This year the wealth effect maybe unusually strong. Our savings rate has been falling though out the 90's. If it were to continue it would go negative at the end of 1999. Unfortunately, the world's economic indicators foretell a worsening and spread of the global recession. Interest rate reductions will have little effect given these conditions. In fact, excessive interest rate reductions would contribute to deflation. Japan did not realize this reduced it's cost of capital excessively. Can we muddle through? Are not demographics favorable? How fragile is an information service economy? Can commodity prices be reinflated? Thoughts for this weekend. Skeet

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