The big news for Eaton is that feature size is getting smaller. This means that there is no pressure to use larger wafers. This means that the Semiconductor division is not going to sell many new machines for a year or so.
Not necessarily so. Eaton sells new machines if wafer sizes get bigger and if feature sizes get smaller.
As feature sizes get smaller, fabs need new implanters and other equipment to produce wafers. For example, smaller feature sizes mean shallower source/drain implants, which require much lower implant energies, which drive new purchases of implanters like the ULE. Processes with smaller feature sizes are also increasingly moving to more sophisticated well doping schemes, which require capabilities of implanters like the HE. There are other process changes which similarly require new things which older generation implanters cannot accomplish.
The problem during the recent downturn is simple macroeconomics--supply exceeded demand. This caused chip prices to drop, and semiconductor makers were induced to keep supply from growing any further. Decreasing feature sizes and increasing wafer sizes both reduce production cost per chip while at the same time greatly increasing the output of a fab line. While the one thing is good (reduced cost per chip), the other thing (increased production volume) is not good in a time of excessive supply. So semiconductor companies have tended to take the cheaper of the two alternatives, decreasing feature sizes and putting off increasing wafer sizes. If demand had been really strong, they would have been doing both, and the semi-equip business would have been going strong, too. Ultimately, the fabs will have to buy new equipment in order to grow volume and advance their fabrication processes, and then the semi-equip business will recover. It has historically been a very cyclical business, growing like crazy and then absolutely collapsing, but this collapse has been worse than most. Nonetheless, the underlying engine of the growth--continued broad technological advancement in our society--has not really changed. So while Eaton's semi-equip business is suffering now, it has reason for bright hopes for the future.
Regards,
G.P. |
