Mike,
Concerning:
" It's a fickle decision, when do telecoms decide to spend money on equipment? Seems like it's never made until it absolutely has to be made because of capacity constraints."
Prior to the levels of competition that we're seeing today, accentuated by the shift in the fundamental model (towards an IP-centric world), new acquisitions were almost entirely dictated by capital-related motivations.
Change took place so slowly, in relative terms, that strategic reasons that supported the actual selection process were projected into the next five to ten years or more. In other words, new techs did not hit the larger platforms of the past with a sense of urgency the way they do today, until the entire industry, it seemed, moved forward in lock step.
This form of almost regimentation-like mentality led to what industry observers used to term "waves" of acquisitions, with each wave predictable almost to the year and month for any given carrier, based on their historical purchasing patterns. Vendors, especially, took note of this pattern and lined up at the carriers doors at the right times, with magazine writers and reporters, and the regulators, right behind them.
The two factors that I've alluded to here, however, namely the torrid increases in competition on all levels, and the move to an IP-centric playing field, have caused the incumbents to move from a focus which was at one time almost entirely dictated by capital motivation, to one which is now more tactical and immediately strategic.
Thus we are seeing some premature replacement decisions, with some associated turn-on-a-dime decision-making, and the willingness on the parts of some of the incumbents to write off some of their still-not-fully-utilized assets, or to accelerate their depreciation schedules where possible, a lot more quickly than they would have, otherwise.
This is why, in part, some platforms will not realize their full intended capacity or extensibility (which may be the case with ISDN in many areas) in favor of the more recent alternatives like IP-enabled VPNs.
Just some observations to add to the discussion, and FWIW,
Regards, Frank Coluccio |
