Eugene: I'm sorry I've offended you.
This is the second time I've had to apologize, recently. You know what you're doing, and have made an excellent trade.
re: " Intent: Attack at inflection point. Take profits at point of loss of momentum." The problem, of course, is deciding when you're at an inflection point, as opposed to a pause on the way down. It would have been very easy to decide, for instance, that Cymer was at an inflection point (and very cheap) when it hit 15. But it just kept on going down to under 6. The chart pattern for NVLS shows an upward pattern for the last week, and a downward pattern for the last 14 months. Longer-term patterns are more reliable than short-term patterns.
re: " margining at nas 1350." The PE on the S&P 500 is, I think, now down from 29 to 22. The long-term average is 15. In recessions, it usually goes to 10. Yes, a lot of air is out of the balloon. But we are still overvalued. And earnings estimates are still coming down.
re: "Not only am I smarter, everyone here is smarter." I'm not. Where I live, we see several people die every winter, outside. They go out on the ice when it's not thick enough, or travel on snowmachines when it's 30 below, or don't bring survival gear with them. The point is, it is usually the most experienced people who die. They die because they are also the most overconfident, and take the most risks. My nvls puts are my survival gear.
Again, congratulations on your very profitable trade. |
