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Non-Tech : Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge
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To: Worswick who wrote (530)10/15/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (1) of 2794
 
Clark,

I agree that it is not enough to say that I am careful. I am but the thundering herd, as you aptly name it, can swamp the most prudent man. One of my favorite sayings is that 'the market's ability to stay irrational is greater than any individual's ability to stay solvent'. But even in this environment a cautious person can figure out how to protect himself from the herd. As soon as the LTCM situation developed it was pretty clear there would be fallout just not clear how it would play out. There was plenty of time for us to take actions to alter our risk profile.

I don't disagree with the sentiment that we are in a very sensitive period. However I aways get a little skeptical about comments that these are the most extreme conditions since _______ (fill in any historical milestone). I may be to sanguine but I have lived through some pretty chaotic and end of the world scenarios and we are still here kicking. Yes there are significant challenges here and there is a potential it all blows up. But I suspect that there is even more likelihood that we muddle through some how. But then I am an optimist by nature. Anyway if you read the interview with Leon Cooperman in last weeks Barron's I pretty much endorse his view of the world.

Henry
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