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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR)

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Aug 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: Neil S who wrote (18621)	10/15/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: Technocrat	Read Replies (3) of 29386

"Computing fabrics" indeed. I've been waiting for this recognition. Between DARPA and NSF, the government has dropped nearly two billion dollars over the last eight years developing this technology. I think the time is nearly upon us to reap the rewards. Sometimes the world is slow to catch on. I remember many lunch time conversations in the early 1980s where no one at the table could fathom why e-mail was only popular among university and high-tech types. Amazing how quickly things can change once the infrastructure environment improves. Microsoft is horribly late on getting NT 5.0 out the door. The filesystem for NT 4.0 called NTFS is so old that it will not accept large disk drives without a lot of pain. Try to put 16Gb disk (say a $350 Maxtor from Best Buy) on a NT box. No dice. Intel is very nervous that they will flood the market with true 64-bit CPUs without an appropriate operating system. Furthermore, Intel would love to dodge this antitrust mood lingering inside the hall of DOJ. The logical answer to the problem is computing fabrics with pools of storage. Microsoft knows this too. We will see some strange alliances in the coming months driven by market forces. I have thought hard about this for a long time. Every time I war game the scenarios, the common denominator among outcomes is the demand for very fast switches. As Craig Stevenson has frequently pointed out, the storage peripherals support Fibre Channel now but Gigabit Ethernet is another matter. Somebody on the list earlier asked about Sun's true commitment to SAN. The context was questioning whether storage area networks would kill off server sales due to less expensive compute boxes. The answer is most definitely yes! Sun stands to lose a huge amount of its market share if they have to compete head to head with Dell and Compaq. Sun is scared silly of SAN, Microsoft, and Intel. IBM is the company which best fits into the SAN space and computing fabrics. This also goes for related companies like EMC. This is my take of the future. Contrary opinions are welcomed.

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