IDX market share growth in AFIS tenprinter market . . . .
Fowler has said that IDX has gained market share in the FBI-approved tenprinter market (i.e., the TP-600 sales). In fact, the number now being used is that IDX is getting 85% of available business.
Assuming this is true, and using my 10-K analysis to estimate that IDX increased its TP-600 sales by 75% in FY98 to a total of $32.4 million, it is possible to model the IDX market share in FY97, and the increase in share in FY98. You just have to make a series of assumptions about how fast the overall tenprinter market is growing. The algebra is pretty easy.
If IDX increased TP-600 sales from FY97 levels of $18.5M to FY98 levels of $32.4M (representing an 85% share), then the total FY98 tenprinter market was about $38.1M. (So that 32.4/x=.85, x=38.1.)
If the total market grew 25% year to year, IDX' FY97 share would have been $18.4M/(38.1M/1.25) or 61%; if it grew 30% year to year, the IDX FY97 share would have been 63%; at a 35% growth rate, IDX would have had an FY97 share of 66%; at a 40% market growth, IDX would have had an FY97 share of 68%; and, at a 45% market growth rate, IDX would have had an FY97 share of 70%.
So under my estimates and models, IDX pushed its market share for new business in the FY97 to FY98 time frame anywhere from 15% to 24% higher. The catch is, now that IDX has such a large market share, it must rely on an accelerating overall market to maintain a 75% growth rate, since IDX TP-600 sales growth must now approximate the market as a whole (that is, they are the market as a whole).
Doesn't it seem to you that the overall market sales growth is accelerating this year? |
