Hello Chan,
I'll put it in MSWIN tonight and give it a look.... Dave Evans
Now, Answer the following question:
IS IT MACANICAL or EMOTIONAL??? Part 1
OK so I'm sitting in front of my PC Screen wondering what stocks I should buy. I just ran my TC2000 download and I'm ready to go. My database consist of 265 stocks directly from the Investor's Business Daily's Weekend Review so I KNOW I have the fastest movers in the universe. I am ready!!!
The first thing I do is go to MetaStock for Windows V6.0 (MSWIN) so I can narrow down my 265 stocks to something much more manageable. I will run my StochRSI (14) Explorer which looks as follows:
Exploration notes This is my StochRSI (14) MSWIN Explorer.
Col A: DNS Fml( "Dave's New System" )
Col B: SRSI buy If(Cross(Fml( "StochRSI 14") , 30),+1,0)
Col C: SRSI sel If(Cross(70, Fml( "StochRSI 14" )),-1,0)
Col D: CLOSE
Col E: VOLUME
Col F: If(Mov(C,5,VAR) > Mov(C,40,VAR),+1,0)
Filter colB>0 AND colF > 0 OR colC < 0 OR colA > 8
Filter enabled Yes
Periodicity Daily
Records required 1300
The scan will give me all the stocks that have just Crossed UP THROUGH 30 which is my buy signal AND all the stocks that have just crossed DOWN THROUGH 70 which is my SELL signal. It will also show me their DNS standing as well as their Price, Volume and if their 5 VMA is above their 40 VMA.
To further understand this Explorer you must know what StochRSI (14) and DNS look like so I will include their code as follows:
DNS:
If(SAR(.02,.2)<C,1,0) +
If((Mov(C,5,E)>Mov(C,13,E)),1,0) +
If((Mov(C,13,E)>Mov(C,40,E)),1,0) +
If((Mov(C,8,E)-Mov(C,17,E))> (Mov(Mov(C,8,E)-Mov(C,17,E),9,E)),1,0)+ If(Mov(C,50,SIMPLE) - Ref(Mov(C,50,SIMPLE),-15) > 0,1,0)+
If((Mov(ROC(C,12,%),3,E)>=-6 OR ROC(C,12,%)>0),1,0)+
If(OBV()>Mov(OBV(),40,S),1,0)+
If(V>Mov(V,120,S),1,0)
StochRSI (14):
Mov((RSI(14)- LLV(RSI(14),14)) /(HHV(RSI(14),14)-(LLV(RSI(14),14))),14,E)*100
Now please remember that these systems DO NOT work the same way. DNS is a longer term system that is designed to find the BIG MOVERS right at the "POINT OF IMPACT" while StochRSI (14) is designed to get you a PIECE OF THE MOVE then get you out. It may sound the same BUT it is not. When you are using DNS you would be more tolerant of losses because you are looking for the BIG RUN. It is a lot like Dahl's Primary Trend (which is a part of DNS) in that respect. It will give a little more back at the end because it wants to make sure the run is over BEFORE it gives you a sell. It is a MOUNTAIN climber.
StochRSI (14) is not concerned with the big move. It wants to get you a few bucks then move on to another candidate. It wants to stay in a stock for a few weeks, collect a few points then give a sell when it thinks the HILL has been scaled.
OK, so I run my StochRSI (14) Explorer and what do I get???
Security Name DNS SRSI b SRSI s
AIRGAS INC 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000
HA-LO INDUSTRIES 3.0000 1.0000 0.0000
TOTAL SYSTEM SER 3.0000 1.0000 0.0000
USA WASTE SERVIC 5.0000 1.0000 0.0000
KEY ENERGY GROUP 6.0000 1.0000 0.0000
PONCEBANK 6.0000 1.0000 0.0000
WATSCO INC CL B 6.0000 1.0000 0.0000
ROYAL BANK OF CA 7.0000 1.0000 0.0000
TOSCO CORP 7.0000 1.0000 0.0000
CHASE CORP 8.0000 1.0000 0.0000
HERBALIFE INTERN 8.0000 1.0000 0.0000
NATIONAL INSTRUM 8.0000 1.0000 0.0000
ACXIOM CORP 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
ASTORIA FINANCIA 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
ATWOOD OCEANICS 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
CARDINAL HEALTH 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
CENTENNIAL TECHN 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
CITFED BANCORP I 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
CLIFFS DRILLING 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
CONSOLIDATED GRA 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
ENSCO INTERNATIO 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
ETHAN ALLEN INTE 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
GIBRALTAR STEEL 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
HUGHES SUPPLY IN 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
JONES APPAREL GR 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
KANKAKEE BANCORP 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
KEANE INC 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
LOMAK PETROLEUM 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MILLER HERMAN IN 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MISSISSIPPI VALL 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
NATIONAL SURGERY 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
NEWFIELD EXPLORA 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
PETROLEUM GEO-SV 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
SELAS CORP OF AM 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
SINTER METALS 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
SONAT INC 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
SYNOVUS FINANCIA 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
TEXAS REGIONAL B 9.0000 0.0000 0.0000
THOR INDUSTRIES 7.0000 0.0000 -1.0000
GORAN CAPITAL IN 8.0000 0.0000 -1.0000
As you can see from the scan results I deleted some of the information and just left the Stock Name in the first column, DNS in the second column, StochRSI (14) BUY in the third Column, and StochRSI(14) SELL in the fourth column. Now, the FIRST thing I look at is the StochRSI (14) SELLs to make sure that none of the stocks I'm presently holding are there. In MSWIN I have a Directory called CURRENT where I copy all the stocks I own. By doing this I can look at my Explorer results and see right away if any of them should be sold. If one of my stocks show up on the sell side I PUT A MARKET SELL IN IMMEDIATELY.. I DO NOT try to play for a better price, I sell AT THE OPEN for whatever the opening price is.. Why??? Because I do not want ANYTHING to stand in the way of me selling this stock...
OK so I look at the sells and I see that none of my stocks need to be sold so I am free to look for buys. But wait,,,, I thought that this scan would give me buys???? YES it does BUT there is more to my system then just StochRSI (14)..
OK so I look at the buys and I see 12 stocks to pick from. From here I go to my favorite screen setup that I have saved as my default. On it I have the following "windows":
Window One: "MACD(5-40)
(Mov(C,5,E) - Mov(C,40,E))
Window One: "MA13(5-40)MACD"
Mov( Fml("MACD(5-40)"),13,E)
Window Two: "Dave's New System"
If(SAR(.02,.2)<C,1,0) +
If((Mov(C,5,E)>Mov(C,13,E)),1,0) +
If((Mov(C,13,E)>Mov(C,40,E)),1,0) +
If((Mov(C,8,E)-Mov(C,17,E))> (Mov(Mov(C,8,E)-Mov(C,17,E),9,E)),1,0)+ If(Mov(C,50,SIMPLE) - Ref(Mov(C,50,SIMPLE),-15) > 0,1,0)+
If((Mov(ROC(C,12,%),3,E)>=-6 OR ROC(C,12,%)>0),1,0)+
If(OBV()>Mov(OBV(),40,S),1,0)+
If(V>Mov(V,120,S),1,0)
Window Three: "Insync Index"
50 + Fml("CCIInS") + Fml("BOLInSLL") + Fml("RSIInS") +
Fml("sto%kInS") + Fml("sto%dInS") + Fml("MFIInS") +
Fml("EMVInSB") + Fml("EMVInSS") + Fml("ROCInSS") +
Fml("ROCInSB") + Ref(Fml("PDOInSS"),-10) +
Ref(Fml("PDOInSB"),-10) + Fml("MACDInSS") + Fml("MACDInSB")
Window Four: "StochRSI 14 day"
Mov((RSI(14)- LLV(RSI(14),14)) /(HHV(RSI(14),14)-(LLV(RSI(14),14))),14,E)*100
Window Five: "PRICE"
I also have an Expert built and linked to my Default screen that has Dahl's Primary Trend as my Trend Finder. It displays either a Green or Red Ribbon on the bottom of the screen. Green for Long and Red for Short. For the Insync Index you will need to code ALL of the Fml's that it contains. I know that the entire formula has been posted in the past so please go back and get it..
Now we have our 12 charts opened with our favorite setup so let's get moving. The FIRST thing I want to look at is VOLUME!!! If there is no Volume I DO NOT want to play with the stock. Now here is where I will disappoint many out there BUT I must be honest. The way I look at the Volume is MANUALLY by opening up the DATA WINDOW and using the crosshairs. I look at the past Month or so and look for Volume under say 30,000 or so. If there were days when the stock was not trading above this, I hit the little x on the top right hand side of the chart to close it up. If Volume looks good, I hit the little MINUS SIGN on the top right hand side to Minimize the chart for later evaluation. The casualties from this Volume test are :
NATIONAL INSTRUM 8.0000 1.0000 0.0000
CHASE CORP 8.0000 1.0000 0.0000
ROYAL BANK OF CA 7.0000 1.0000 0.0000
WATSCO INC CL B 6.0000 1.0000 0.0000
PONCEBANK 6.0000 1.0000 0.0000
KEY ENERGY GROUP 6.0000 1.0000 0.0000
TOTAL SYSTEM SER 3.0000 1.0000 0.0000
Now I have an even nicer number of stocks to work with. Please remember that I am always looking for reasons NOT TO BUY as opposed to reasons to buy. Going in I HATE ALL STOCKS until they show me different. So now I have FIVE stocks to pick from:
AIRGAS INC 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000
HA-LO INDUSTRIES 3.0000 1.0000 0.0000
TOSCO CORP 7.0000 1.0000 0.0000
USA WASTE SERVIC 5.0000 1.0000 0.0000
HERBALIFE INTERN 8.0000 1.0000 0.0000
Now we can LOOK at the charts to find our winners.
First up,,, HA-LO Industries. I know this one because I have made money with it in the past BUT that does not enter into this evaluation. We do not need the Data Window for this so we will remove it from the screen. We now look at ALL FIVE windows at the same time to see if we can find any reasons to BUY this stock. At this point I do a system test for StochRSI (14) because I want to know if the buy signal is good or not. What do I mean by this. When, the Explorer will tell me if the stock has just crosses UP THROUGH 30 but it will not tell me if the sequence of the crossing is right. This stock could have been crossing above and below 30 for the past few weeks which WOULD NOT be a buy.. I also want to see the past history of StochRSI (14) and this stock to see if they are compatible. HA-LO gives me a YES on both counts. The signal is good and I have a 6 out of 7 for past results.. So far, So good.
Now we start looking at the Indicator Windows to evaluate stock movement. First up is the MACD 5-40 with the 13 EMA. What I'm seeing is a stock that's not quite there yet. The MACD is still below 0 BUT moving in the right direction. The 13 EMA is above 0 waiting for the MACD to catch up. It looks like we may be a day or so early for this one BUT let's keep looking.
Next up is DNS and man does it look ugly.. It's sitting at 3 which is about as low as it can go.. It did move up from 2 a few days ago BUT this could be telling up that this latest move might lack follow through. Now remember that DNS and StochRSI are different types of indicators so we will keep on looking before we hang this one up..
Next up is the Insync Index and it looks a lot better then DNS. What we like to see here is Insync moving UP from a low of around 25 through 30 and beyond. THAT'S just what we have here. On 12-18 we had Insync sitting at 25 then we had the move up to 45 where it is sitting now. Insync and StochRSI agree with this one.
Now I put up my NEW indicator which was a GIFT to all of us from Chan. It's the PVI - NVI that I call my "Andy from Chan" Indicator. I use it with a 0 cross and guess what???? It just crossed above 0.
Now what??? Some say yes and some say no.. I guess I need more information so let's GET some from GET.
Get's telling me that HALO just came off a Wave 4 down and should be ready to start a Wave 5 UP. I put up a Regression Channel and price HAS broken through so this is good.. My 5-40-13 MACD Histogram on the bottom of the screen is still negative BUT it is going in the right direction ANDit looks like it's ready to turn.. But, I still need more..
On to TC2000... Let's look at it with different eyes and see what we have. Well, TC2000 is not crazy about it either. My MA's are NOT lined up the way I like them and OBV is BELOW it's 40 day MA. BOP and MoneyStream both look like they MIGHT be ready to turn BUTthey are not strong now.
Now it's time to make a decision. This one is not clear cut so what should I do????? Well, as I always say. When in doubt throw it out. There are too many STRONG stocks out there for me to SETTLE on this one. There are just too many Indicators that are saying WAIT for me to jump in now. I think that this one MIGHT be a buy in a few days BUT I'm looking for a buy now...
Oh well I have four more to look at so away I go... I'll be saying good-by now because as you can see, I have A LOT of work to do... Did this help anyone???? Dave Evans |
