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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: Juster who wrote (1592)10/15/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: sea_urchin  Read Replies (1) of 81198
 
Juster : I am delighted my models were of some use to you.

It's often difficult for me to mention them especially when they suggest situations which are different from the popular consensus. Another problem is when they don't agree with each other --- then I don't know which model to believe.

A third problem, which I have, is in my own mind. Lately, because I have been expecting a 1929-type situation ie a major jump outside the existing statistical "population", I have considered that the models may be statistically inaccurate because I only have 20 years of data. Now, I don't know what to think!?

For what it's worth, and I am not recommending anything, the models have been consistently positive on the major SAf golds, since the beginning of the year, with the expectation of +/- a doubling in price in the next 1-2 years. (+50% from here on) Depending on the extent of the dollar devaluation, the anticipated profit range could be even larger.
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