Matt,
OK, let me see if I can think this through a little better...
I still can't believe this rate cut business.
1) If we don't get a gap up tomorrow, then business as usual.
I think we'll just stay where we're at - $31.
2) If we gap up $1 -- well, I think there are a lot of
options players who will benefit from this and try to keep
it up. (just my hunch) But, then there will be profit takers
sending it down. BUT, IF the institutional investor's start
seeing a better bargain - maybe their outlook on the economy
will change - then these big players will be more willing
to get in. That to me will help us get through $33. So,
I guess I will be looking to see how the big institutions
will react tomorrow. Traders, shorts, momentum players, etc.
will just take profits as always.
If we gap up $2 or more, then I'd have to say "big money" is
moving the price up. I think the answer will still depend
on how world markets, US markets, and big institutions
are thinking/reacting. It also may take a few days for
them to sort things out.
Remember how we had that huge gap up after COMS earnings two
quarters ago? And then we eventually went down to "close
the gap"? I've been thinking about that somewhat. It may
be a similar situation, because big institutions started
buying heavily (and short covering also). Looking back,
I ask myself why did we have to back track like we did.
To me the answer was that even though COMS surprised people
and showed they had a good quarter and were recovering,
it also came out that growth was forecast to be a little
slower than expected. Realistically, COMS was very early
in a turnaround phase, and it's very hard to gauge future
growth, so the institutions
took the conservative approach mixed with some additional info
from the CC (and another analyst meeting a short while later)
and deemed COMS a good value bet, but went
back and hedged their bet by lowering growth estimates.
So, if institutions get back in big in the next few days,
they may later on make corrections for macro reasons, but
not COMS fundamentals. And, there's a good chance, that
soon, COMS growth prospects will be evaluated upwards. This
is when we'll get the nice jumps up.
I think I've been thinking out loud. If you get this far,
thanks for bearing with me.
joe |
