Maurice,
before anyone gets too excited .......... paid a visit to travel agent this morning and put down a deposit. I guess it is time to visit the original birthplace of the Asian contagion. You all know what that means.
Why are there so many posts on this thread these days, and that is without college football, baseball, political rants and stock quotes (just for you Jon)?
A number of very interesting events recently.
Good news is Nextel. Looks like their little niche is finally starting to get squashed by the main stream PCS. They reported declining subs last qtr. The way they bleed, I wonder how long can they afford to keep up the ads and marketing cost while continuing to lose grounds. They have "stolen" over 2 million customers who rightfully belonged to the CDMA camp.
The Japanese people are screwed. It looks like we are trying to bail out the world on the backs of the Japanese. May be the comfort women of WWII consider it justice, finally. The recent agreement for the bank bail out is now tagged at $250 billion, much more in line than the $100 billion (approx) previously approved. Another $30 billion package targeted to help Asia. Friend recently went to Tokyo on shopping trip. She said many department stores visited are likely to file for bankruptcy before year end. Now with a stronger yen, they are going to have no help from the exporting front.
I have a little list, keeping track of all the potential "good" news vs "bad" news. Off the list now are : Fed rate cuts, Japan bail out plan, Brazil bail out (rumored to be in place) and "positive" earnings surprises. Still on the list is IMF funding and subsequent action.
Still on the bad news list: severe earnings revisions for next year, more hedge fund news, Japan implosion, weaker dollar impact in the world.
aei.org
I think this Makin fellow has the best ideas. If he is correct, then we are heading in the reverse direction of the solution.
In either case, I believe Japan is biting hard on the bullet now. Similar to China, I think the plan is in place for economic recovery. However, the most painful stage has just begun. It may take years for them to absorb the damages. If Japan can get their act together, I will soon be abandoning the chicken little title.
Ramsey |
