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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 229.55+0.2%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (21747)10/15/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: Gary Walker  Read Replies (4) of 164684
 
There is no formula for success for these internet commerce companies....

Competition and capital will freely flow from one to another.

Yahoo's selling at 79 times annual sales! That's higher than NSCP before the fall a few years ago. AMZN is at 10 with no earnings and no clear path to get there!

Yahoo has tonnes of competitors and a multiple that 3/4's that of CBS! That's right! Can you believe that!!!

People still buy books at bookstores. Barns and Noble are going to have their internet site to compete. A friend of mine works for Borders and he says AMZN's margins are so thin that they'll struggle to make money no matter the volume.

Any retailer with half a brain can do exactly what AMZN and Yhoo are doing. Go ask MSFT and any two bit internet consultant. The retailer at least knows how to stock, service, and sell the goods. There's no special technology involved. Microsoft could set us up in a jiffy.

What's the competitive advantage of Yahoo? Of Amazon? Their share price is their only weapon. They can be aggressive buyers of companies, who'll take their shares and sell them.

The Fed delayed the bubble for a bit today in an unprecedented manipulative move. Irrational exuberence my eye.

Another major securities house in Japan is about to fail. Brazil bailout is a smoke screen. The bubble is growing....and there's more to come.

I'm short both and AOL to boot.

Good luck!

gw
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